Thousand Dollar Thursday, A Grand New Deal Every Week

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Stocks, IPOs and China

I'm putting out a request. Does anyone know anything about RenRen (RENN)? It's supposed to be the new Face Book of China. I know the Two characters for the REN and the REN. They are the characters for People. As in PeoplePeople. Good name for facebook of China. It has a negative earnings report currently, but that is last quarter. What will the new earnings be.
I just read a status report on RENN. It was negative. It has no P/E, but that's okay as it's a new IPO. It's supposed to announce earnings on August 11th. They could be awesome, or negative. That is my request. I think it will do okay, if they really do come alive and meet up with their potential.
In fact, one report said it had a twelve month projected P/E of 387. That's high, even too high, but at least their projecting some earnings. Currently the ratio says N/A, or not applicable, because, if you'll remember from math class, you can't divide by zero. No earnings divided into $10 is still N/A.
In fact, whoever wrote the report, has a price target of $9. That's scary, but the options are very good. I've been looking at this one as a covered call stock, and the numbers are good. Maybe because there is so much speculation.
So, I'll ask you my friends, does anyone have info on this company?
Send your friends to wadecook22.blogspot.com

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

MONEY - POLITICS - REAL ESTATE

This is a bit longer than I originally intended. I get a case of circumlocution and it's hard to stop. However, this is very important as we need to know who we're dealing with.
I was so astonished. Really. The headline in a Wall Street Journal article read: GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED MELTDOWN.
I've said to my friends and on FaceBook, etc., that I'm on a GSS, or Government Sponsored Sabbatical. And since this has happened, I feel like I've been in a meltdown, so the use of the word meltdown is not too much of a stretch applied to my situation. But lo and behold, the Wall Street Journal was not writing about me, though my story is much more interesting than the one I read. I'll try to take the gist of the article and distill it into a readable expose on the government.
Ever since 2008 I've read and studied everything I can get my hands on about the financial downturn, especially as it redounds to real estate. I love investing, but I dislike the government. They ruin everything they touch. It is constantly a funny situation when I see the blame be foisted on evil "Wall Street Bankers," or even on the free-markets in general. Always the blame game, usually propagated by the very culprits who committed the crimes.
Now comes more of the same, government agencies and government people, blaming anyone and everyone but themselves for the financial castrophe they caused. I'm speaking of TARP and the Billions of Dollars the government had to rush into the "crisis du jour." Remember John McCain setting aside his campaign to return to Washington to prevent the sky from falling?
The article was written by Peter Wallison, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. All quotations for the balance of this article are from him, unless otherwise noted. The theme at almost all junctions is that the banks led us into this financial crisis. Even the FCIC Democratic majority sort of laid the blame at the feet of The Department of Housing and Urban Development and the GSEs (Here's a take off on the same word as in the title---Government-Sponsored Enterprises. This time a legitimate acronym), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Gretchen Morgenson, no conservative and writer for the New York Times, and Josh Rosner, wrote a withering expose on the government cause and effect of the meltdown. The book is "Reckless Endangerment." "Government housing policies, pursued and exploited brought the financial system to a halt in 2008."
The blame can even come down to one man. A man who is a  "Katrina level destructive force," who has avoided blame and having to answer for his actions. He even avoided being one of 700 people interviewed in numerous House, Senate and other investigations. His name is James A. Johnson, A Democratic operative and former aide to Walter Mondale. Need I say more? He . . . "became a chairman of Fannie Mae in 1991, they note, it became a political powerhouse, intimidating and suborning Congress and tying itself closely to the Clinton administration's support for the low-became lending program called
'affordable housing.'"
"The authors are correct. Far from being a marginal player, Fannie Mae was the source of the decline in mortgaged underwriting standards that eventually brought down the financial system. It led rather than followed Wall Street into risky lending. This history does not appear in the FCIC majority report"
In 2008 50% of these loans were sub-prime. That's 27 million loans and 12 million were held by GSEs. These loans and the supporting government requirements were on the books of these GSEs but were left out of the report.
So, now we have a new dilemma. Government, not Wall Street, is responsible for this awful mess. Explain how we have moved into the new Dodd-Frank monstrosity, the new financial regulations that will negatively effect every one of us in countless harmful ways. Yes, these two gentlemen caused the problem and then became the protectors of the government wrong doing. I'm sure as more facts and news comes to light, we will see more evidence that government is the problem, not the solution.
I don't want to write anything like this without throwing in my solutions. They are simple. Repeal Dodd-Frank. Replace it with less regulation. We do not need more government. We need more freedom and a concerned and watchful citizenry. The simple code should be: BE HONEST. I think that's too hard of concept for politicians to follow. I also wrote in the new preface and forward for "How To PIck Up Foreclosures," that the heavy restrictions on assuming loans should be repealed. Do away with the "Due on Sale Clause." The market will self-correct if government gets out of the way.
Publisher's Note. We agree. Wade's comments in his book mentioned above are timely and powerful. Order his books, either e-books or soft-bound at Amazon.com (Create Space). We'll get your comments to Wade. So if you have questions or thoughts, please write. We love our blogging community.

Sunday, July 17, 2011

A Quality Life

This topic could have as easily gone under MONEY and POLITICS, as it is important for all of us. When someone sees the light and turns from Liberalism, Progressivism, or any other tyrannical way of thinking, it is a milestone and should be made mention of.

David Mamet, author, playright and movie mogul (GlenGary Glenross, Wag the Dog, etc.), was a dyed in the wool Liberal. He was raised by Jewish parents in New York. He never even talked to a conservative until he was sixty years old. Over the years that followed, after reading F.A. Hayak(Road to Serfdom), Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell, he gradually became aware of the decaying of America caused by Liberals. He has now written a book, THE SECRET KNOWLEDGE, and I highly recommend it, especially if you have liberal friends. To me, liberalism is a intellectual cul-de-sac. His insights are powerful. In the next several blogs, I'll share some of his quotes. He has been interviewed in numerous places, and he definitely has a message for America.
Some of his thoughts:
"It is not the absence of government but the rejection of culture which leads to anarchy."
"That all human beings possess both a conscience and that free will necessary to allow them to either reject its dictates or to formulate them into habit." He goes on to say: "Man is accountable."
Rush LImbaugh interviewed David Mamet in the July edition of his newsletter.
__________________________
I love Thomas Sowell. I suggest you read everything you can read by him. He has commentaries in Investor's Business Daily, about 2 or 3 times a week.

More on Google

Hi again,
I ran across an article in the Wall Street Journal, written by J. Gordon Crovitz, about the Google investigation.
Mr. Crovitz comments: "In the case of Google, the perverse claim apparently is that it serves consumers too well, making it too tough for competitors.
In Google's case though, competitors are just a click away. Google has a search option called, "I feel lucky," wherein Google says to one and all that it can nail the search in one click. Should not the customers choose who will be used, and in effect who will win this free-market competitive battle?
Microsoft has a similar search engine called Bing. Funny now, that Microsoft is funding "Fairsearch.org" to lobby regulators and politicians to stop Google's march toward and 'unregulated monopoly.'" (Ibid. Crovitz).
And funnier yet is the fact that after these giants fight the battle now aided and abetted by the government, some new start-up, today being worked out in someone's garage, will compete and win against both of these giants. Aaaahhhh, the circle of financial life.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Google today

There are so many unbelievable things going on in the political arena. Everyday I start to write comments and recommendations on the political scene, but even I, Mr. Optimism, have a difficult time trying to make sense of the liberal mind.
I'll be writing more later on this so-called debt crisis, but for now let me comment on GOOGLE. They are a one of a kind company. This morning, they reported a rise in profits, about 36% ahead of estimations. They knocked the socks off of everyone following the stock. It shot up $70 to near $600 per share, and as I write this, it's up $65.
Awhile ago the FTC (Federal Trade Commission) said it was going to investigate Google for,
what . . . ? Some kind of improprieties, say in the anti-trust realm. This is crazy. They are attacking Google for being too good and effective at what they do. Google has passed that "success" threshold, and the big boys see it as their job to rein them in. It's a sad commentary on our government. Punish the achievers.
Google carved out a niche. Now, others, Including Microsoft (Bing) are going after Google's share. The marketplace works just fine, thank you very much. Indeed the irony is that Microsoft is one of the companies lining up to complain to the authorities about Google. Ironic because it was Novell that got the justice department to go after Microsoft---causing Billions of dollars in damages, and only ingratiated the attorneys.
I argued with Senator Hatch a few years ago when I was driving him to the airport after a visit to our Seattle offices, that the Justice Department shouldn't be wielding the sword of government for a Utah constituent. It is funny how big companies want more government regulations which affect the little companies---the start-ups and true competitors of the big guys---and effectively keep them out of the business.
So, I say, congratulations Google. Keep it up. Serve your customers. Make our life better. Grow and expand around the world, and stay "bucked up." All I ask is that you do a ten for one stock split (or 20:1), like Baidu (BIDU) did. Their stock was at $650, went to ten shares at $65 and in the past few months has climbed back up to $148. Double WOW.
For some excitement away from the Democratic lies, follow those two companies, along with BORN, RENN and AAPL.
More Later.

Stock Market musings

July 11, 2011 (Remember this is a snapshot in time)

STOCK MARKET.
What a bad day in the market. There is a lot of fear about the debt crisis---both here and in Europe. I just wish the guy in the White House would be quiet and go to his room. He's grounded.
There are many stocks that currently are in a good buying range. Let me give a few and also the covered call possibilities. When I talk about covered calls, and if you do not follow then get my books. Wall Street Money Machine would be a good start, but I also think Stock Market Money Machine is the best for covered calls. It's a single topic book. If you want to generate monthly income then it's the way to go.
For example: I looked at RenRen (RENN), a recent Chinese IPO. It's supposed to be the Face Book of China. It came out on the IPO at $14, ran up to $24 and then backed off to $6 plus, with the negative news about Chinese companies. I think many of these will go back up. Most already have. Check out BIDU, SINA, BORN, and others.
Back To RENN. The stock was at $9.90 earlier. The August $10 calls were about $1.20. Here is how it works. In a covered call situation you first buy the stock, in 100 share increments. Then you immediately, or wait for the stock to rise, sell an option. Get this: I did not say buy a risky option. You sell it against your stock position. This is what covered means. Buy selling the option you have taken in cash. In this case, $1,200 and you have agreed to sell your stock at $10 anytime on or before the 3rd Friday of August. If the stock is above $10 you will sell it, or what we call, getting called out.
If you want to make extra money, you can buy back the option, end the obligation and sell another option. One time I took on stock and sold the calls and bought them back for 13 months. I started with $5,250 and made (actual cash) $16,150. All of this is documented in STOCK MARKET MONEY MACHINE.
Later, I'll write more on double dipping. We used to show people how to get 20% a month---cash on cash---writing covered calls. Today, that is very difficult to do. Getting 10% a month is doable, but even that number takes a bit of understanding and work. 
Ask your self this: If I put up $9,900, or 1/2 of that on margin, or $4,500, and make $1,200 for 5 weeks, plus another $100 in capital gains if you get called out, is it worth it to learn more, and practice trade this type of activity. I contend that if you have $20,000 and learn this system, and pay attention, you can make $2,400 to $3,500 a month (depending on your use of margin). If you use no margin buying then you can (it's possible) the lower amount, which is still phenomenal.
Look at MBI, NG, BORN. There are many others, but enough for now.
Wade

Saturday, July 9, 2011

Joke of the Day

My mother-in-law sent this to me.  Enjoy!

On their way to get married, a young couple is involved in a fatal car accident. The couple find themselves sitting outside the Pearly Gates waiting for St. Peter to process them into Heaven. While waiting, they begin to wonder, "Could they possibly get married in Heaven?" When St. Peter showed up, they asked him. St. Peter said, "I don't know. This is the first time anyone has asked. Let me go find out", and he leaves. The couple sat and waited, and waited. Two months passed and the couple are still waiting. As they waited, they discussed that if they were allowed to get married in Heaven, what was the eternal aspect of it all. "What if it doesn't work?" they wondered, "Are we stuck together forever?" After yet another month, St. Peter finally returns, and said, "Yes". He informed the couple, "You can get married in Heaven." "Great!" said the couple, "But we were just wondering, what if things don't work out? Could we also get a divorce in Heaven?" St. Peter, red-faced with anger, slammed his clipboard onto the ground. "What's wrong?" asked the frightened couple. "Oh, come on!", St. Peter shouted, "It took me three months to find a priest up here! Do you have any idea how long it'll take me to find a LAWYER??!!! "

Friday, July 8, 2011

More on Stock Splits

STOCK SPLITS
One of the things I've written on extensively is what I call "The Forklift." I used to call it "compelling reasons." Either one works. Here's how it works. You are working in a warehouse. A big, heavy box needs to be moved clear across the warehouse. You need a forklift to do so. You look around and see and do not see a forklift. The box is not going to be moved until you find one.
In the market, you have a stock that needs to move, we'll assume up. You look around and ask, "Where's the Forklift?" What is it that will move the stock from $92 to $120? (Like the LULU trade) What "impending event"---stock split, earnings, dividend, expansion, end of lawsuit, new management, merger, acquisition, etc.---is going to move the stock. Just hoping it will move is not enough. It needs a real event, real news to make it go.
Then and only then should you get involved. Oh, and usually the event should happen in a few days. You don't want the box sitting too long on the warehouse floor.
Again, keep your eyes on LULU. There are a host of things to learn.

Money and Politics

Hello, my friends,
All is well here. I keep my ear to the ground on the economy. It's amazing how interlinked money is to politics. A few days ago, Mr. Obama said that  "you can't cut spending your way out of this mess." That's paraphrased. I beg to differ. It's the only way. Tell me how you tax you way to prosperity. It has never happened and it will never happen. What about more regulations and making it harder for business to start up and grow? We don't need more regulations. How about borrowing you way to an economic recovery? Nope, won't work. How about running up trillions more in debt? If anyone thinks that's the answer, than they should move to Europe. What about hiring more government workers? How about giving in to the government unions? What about . . . what? Well we're back to spending. What about lowering spending, reducing the size of government, and stopping all this nonsense?
Richard Roberts, Professor of Economics at George Mason University, said, "The other challenge is simply confidence. Businesses aren't hiring because they're uneasy about the future. There's no easy way to instill confidence, but we know how to kill it---create uncertainty about taxes and regulations."
Wade Cook says: "President Obama has no common sense to know how to lead and manage, therefore he has no common sense to realize how wrong his policies really are."
Thanks, Your comments please.
Wade

Stock Splits

Obviously it's hard to get information in a timely manner on this side of the wall. It's a challenge. However, LULU (LuluLemon Athletica) has done well.
One student in Fairbanks has taken about $1,000 and made about $5,000 in 12 days. It's coming up on a stock split today. It's a 2:1 and will be reflected on Monday. The stock has gone from around $80 to $122. Over the years I've noticed that on the ex-date, in this case Monday, and shortly thereafter, the split stocks back off a bit. Not to despair, because they soon run into the next earnings season, and almost always they do well on the earnings front.
I've probably looked at the charts of about 2,000 stock splits---in many ways now a more popular strategy than rolling stocks---and I can only remember three which never backed off after the split. One was Coach (COH), the women's purse and bag company. I don't remember the other two. These split and just kept going. LULU could do the same.
It has an off-year end---Jan. 31. So, instead of June 30 being the quarter end, it's July 31st. Earnings will be sometime in August---probably around the 15th or 18th. You can look it up. So, the summer rally has started. In fact, it started early this year. It usually ends about mid-August. This year will probably be different. Who knows about the politics associated with the so-called debt crisis.
Okay, so, the game is still afoot. Watch it tomorrow. It's been a nice increase. Will it continue. I think Molly just bought the July 125 calls for $1.75. This is a cram-play. She only bought two contracts, or $350. I think she's going for a double. I don't know where the sell point is, but a double would be nice. Again the split is tomorrow, the expiration for July is next Friday, the 15th.
Watch and learn. It's fun to learn at someone else's expense.
Thought for the day: "It's a wise person who realizes the need for an extra, independent source of income." I add, wiser yet, if that person gains the skills to accomplish this.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Woes of the Government Bailout

I write the following to share my conviction that government is the problem, not the solution. Do you remember just a few short years ago, the clamore (Indeed, the "Sky is Falling" rhetoric) that the world was in imminent danger unless the powers-that-be got Billions of Dollars and a huge regulatory over-haul of the financial system. It was called TARP. $700,000,000 was thrown at the problem. Now the Wall Street Journal writes: " . . . nearly three years after the panic of 2008, our all-seeing regulators have somehow not fixed what was arguably the single biggest justification for government intervention at the time."

What they regulated and what happened to the money was and is despicable. Proof? "Half the assets in U.S. prime money market funds were invested in European banks as of the end of May", according to Fitch Ratings. What? Our taxpayers have put up their hard-earned cash to bail out "our" financial crises and half of it ends up in Europe. Yes, the very Europe (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and others) that is in the news daily, with defaults, riots and bankruptcy looming. Did you know your money was going out of the United States for this? I guess our regulators were busy drafting new legislation of 2,300 pages (with 14 new felonies), most of which is to be determined by bureaucrats---un-named.
Again the Wall Street Journal States: "The real  systemic risk is a U.S. government that has regulated and redistributed everything under the financial sun while choosing not to enact the reform that everyone knew had to get done." It didn't work, and now we find out that our money has flown the coop for Europe. Who's watching the watchers?

It gets worse. They then moved on to passing more regulation. Tim Geitner (Treasury Secretary) and others shouted that if only we passed the Dodd-Frank Bill, " . . . the days of crisis and bailout were over." What are they smoking? The Dodd-Frank monstrosity in many ways is more onerous, intrusive and bone-headed than ObamaCare, which defies credulity.

But they will pass it off, blame others and look the other way until it is too late.

Coming Up: I'm readying my notes on the three-pronged attack of Liberal tax strategies. Watch for it.

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Options

As I mentioned in the last post this is not a great time for options---they seem to be stymied. However, when it comes to covered call writing, there are opportunities everywhere.

For example, awhile ago RenRen (Ticker: RENN), the company in China that wants to be China's Face Book, went public. It came out at around $12 to $14, I don't remember, and shot way up. Recently it backed off to $6.70. Maybe it went down because thru May the whole market went down, or maybe because of the bad news out of China (Accounting Procedures). I don't know, but it's moving back up.
Yesterday the stock was at $8.90. Now, in looking for a good covered call option, I look for an 8% to 10% option based on the stock price. This assumes that you're trying to sell an at-the-money or a near-the-money option. In this case $9. That would be around 70 to 90 cents. Lately we have to settle for 4% and 5%.  Get this, the July (two weeks from now to the third Friday, July 15th) the options are 65 X 70 cents. You can put in a limit order to sell, but if you take the market price (the bid, or first number) you'd take in 65 cents, or $650, assuming you purchased 1,000 shares.

Look at the August Options. Yes, this is six weeks. They were $1.30 X $1.35. That's $1,300. Tell me where $8,900, or $4,450 on margin will earn you $1,300 for six weeks.

Now on to today. An expensive option like this (above 10%) sends up some warning flags. It shows a lot of volatility. However, we're headed into the summer rally, and this stock looks like it wants to go up. Earlier the stock was $9.15, already up from yesterday. The July $9 calls were 75 cents to sell. The August $9 calls were $1.35. It would have been better to do this trade yesterday. The option is only 5 cents higher, but the stock is up 25 cents. Still, an awesome amount of money.
I have a few more examples. I'll write later.
____________________________________
Answer to Question: Do I have to do trades on margin? Absolutely not. Don't do margin if you don't have to. Margin is a form of debt. Yes, you can double your cash returns, but you have to weigh it out and discuss this with your broker.
NOTE:  I will be doing a Q & A and invite your questions or comments. We will probably divide these questions into topics and either make a book of them, or make them available in a more permanent site, say on the publisher's website.
LULU is doing a stock split (two for one) watch and learn. It splits next Friday. It has moved up from the high 80 dollar range to $114 today. It could move more, so watch it.
__________________________________________
Seek out your own financial professionals for trade suitability. Good Luck.
Wade

Friday, July 1, 2011

Covered Calls and LOCC

Disclaimer: The prices used in this blog post are a snapshot in time and are given for example purposes only. Do your own due diligence and research. Trading in the stock market can be risky.  WBC

   It's most difficult to just jump into a particular trade for generating cash flow. I get in letters and trades from all over the country. As this blog gets more popular---with questions, trades and examples---it will even be more fun.
   This is not a great market for writing covered calls, but it is a good one. There are still some exciting deals out and about.
   For example: Eastman Kodak (EK). The stock is $3.50 (it's down but they're coming up on the conclusion of a big lawsuit) and the July $3.50 call options are 35 cents to sell. Look at the numbers. 1,000 shares would cost $3,500, or $1,750 on margin.  Sell the calls on a covered basis (you own the stock) and you'd take in $350. that's for the next two weeks. You would be agreeing to sell your stock for $3.50 (that's a break-even). There are some better ones, but this is not bad.
   I always look at AMD, MU (these are both down right now) and some people have recently played TIVO. However, look at MBI. The stock was at $8.70 and the July $9 calls were 24 X 27 cents. The August $9 calls were 60 X 63 cents. Let's do the August for this paper-trade. Remember, prices here are a snapshot in time, and this is for educational purposes only. 1,000 shares would be $8,700, or $4,350 on margin. Sell the $9 calls for 60 cents, and take in $600.  In writing a covered call you give away the upside movement of the stock---at least everything above $9.00 in this case.  You get paid $600 to take on the obligation to sell your stock at $9.00, and just think if the stock goes to or above $9.00 and you get called out, you'll make another $300 ($9.00 [-] $8.70 = 30 cents X 1,000 = $300). Not bad for $4,350.
   And don't forget about the "BUY-Back" which let's us end this trade and regain control of your stock. One more point. I wrote extensively on LOCC, or Large Option Covered Calls (my old book, "Free Stocks") and with some stocks this strategy is alive and well. It's for people who want to park some of their money and let it ride. Look at the  $9 calls for Jan. 2012. They are going for $1.65 X $1.70. Again, a thousand shares, and you could sell the $9 calls out six months for $1,650. It's the little train that I said, "I can." It's the Chattanooga Choo-Choo. And think that's $1,650 in your account which could buy more stocks, apply toward your margin amount, etc. I'll be working with the publisher to update items in Free Stocks and combine it with other topics. Watch for it.
   I also like LULU (Lululemon Athletica) right now. It's coming up on a 2:1 stock split, next week. Look at the options on RENN (RenRen). I'll write more on two or three more trades tomorrow. Please send your questions or comments.
Thanks, Wade
BLOG-MEISTER'S NOTE: The above covered call, used for generating monthly income, is explained in detail in "Stock Market Money Machine." This is a single topic book, by Wade Cook. You can order your copy at Amazon.com (E-Book) or Lulu.com (not the above LULU) for an e-book or a soft-bound book.